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Individual smartwatch or fitness band sensor data in the setting of COVID-19 has shown promise to identify symptomatic and pre-symptomatic infection or the need for hospitalization, correlations between peripheral temperature and self-reported fever, and an association between changes in heart-rate-variability and infection. In our study, a total of 38,911 individuals (61% female, 15% over 65) have been enrolled between March 25, 2020 and April 3, 2021, with 1118 reported testing positive and 7032 negative for COVID-19 by nasopharyngeal PCR swab test. We propose an explainable gradient boosting prediction model based on decision trees for the detection of COVID-19 infection that can adapt to the absence of self-reported symptoms and to the available sensor data, and that can explain the importance of each feature and the post-test-behavior for the individuals. We tested it in a cohort of symptomatic individuals who exhibited an AUC of 0.83 [0.81–0.85], or AUC = 0.78 [0.75–0.80] when considering only data before the test date, outperforming state-of-the-art algorithm in these conditions. The analysis of all individuals (including asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic) when self-reported symptoms were excluded provided an AUC of 0.78 [0.76–0.79], or AUC of 0.70 [0.69–0.72] when considering only data before the test date. Extending the use of predictive algorithms for detection of COVID-19 infection based only on passively monitored data from any device, we showed that it is possible to scale up this platform and apply the algorithm in other settings where self-reported symptoms can not be collected.

 

In this study, we propose a post-hoc ex- plainability framework for deep learning models applied to quasi-periodic biomedical time-series classification. As a case study, we focus on the problem of atrial fibrillation (AF) detection from electrocardiography signals, which has strong clinical relevance. Starting from a state-of-the-art pretrained model, we tackle the problem from two differ- ent perspectives: global and local explanation. With global explanation, we analyze the model behavior by looking at entire classes of data, showing which regions of the input repetitive patterns have the most influence for a specific outcome of the model. Our explanation results align with the expectations of clinical experts, showing that features crucial for AF detection contribute heavily to the final decision. These features include R-R interval regularity, absence of the P-wave or presence of electrical activity in the isoelectric period. On the other hand, with local explanation, we analyze specific input signals and model outcomes. We present a comprehensive analysis of the network facing different conditions, whether the model has correctly classified the input signal or not. This enables a deeper understanding of the network’s behavior, showing the most informative regions that trigger the classification decision and highlighting possible causes of misbehavior.